National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 4
05/20/2012 07:50 AM
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
000
WTNT31 KNHC 201450
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
...ALBERTO WEAKENS A LITTLE...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 4
05/20/2012 07:49 AM
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012
000
WTNT21 KNHC 201449
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1500 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 79.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 79.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.3W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.4N 79.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.3N 77.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.2N 75.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 38.0N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 39.5N 66.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 79.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 3
05/20/2012 01:48 AM
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
000
WTNT41 KNHC 200848
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 31.7N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.4N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 31.2N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 31.6N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.8N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 36.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 39.0N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
05/20/2012 07:50 AM
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012
000
FONT11 KNHC 201450
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1500 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 6 9 13 16 22 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 38 42 40 38 33 37 NA
TROPICAL STORM 60 51 48 44 45 37 NA
HURRICANE X 2 3 5 6 4 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 2 3 4 5 4 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X 1 X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAYPORT NS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Graphics
05/20/2012 07:50 AM
alt="Tropical Storm ALBERTO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 11:41:55 GMT
alt="Tropical Storm ALBERTO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 09:03:45 GMT
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Hurricane Local Statement for Charleston, SC
05/20/2012 05:35 AM
Issued at 835 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Best Track Information (.shp)
05/20/2012 07:49 AM
GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 14:49:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Best Track Information (.kmz)
05/20/2012 07:49 AM
GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 14:49:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Information (.shp)
05/20/2012 07:49 AM
GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 14:49:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
05/20/2012 02:04 AM
GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 09:04:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
05/20/2012 02:04 AM
GIS Data last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 09:04:07 GMT
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Cyclone Information by XML (protoype)
05/20/2012 07:49 AM
Issued at Sun, 20 May 2012 14:49:44 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
05/19/2012 08:56 AM
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191556
TWOAT
SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC - CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
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